Forex Today: Quieter Market Awaits US Inflation Data

Markets finally had a day of relatively low volatility and directionless price movement, with the exception of commodities which mostly traded lower. Sentiment is partially defined by concern over rising inflation rates, so markets are awaiting a cue from today’s US CPI release which will show whether inflation is continuing to rise and exceed expectations, as this will likely have a strong impact upon monetary policy pursued by the Fed over the near term. There is increasing concern over a “stagflation” outlook – high inflation coupled with declining GDP, and this outcome would likely be very bad for stock markets. Analysts are now busy slashing their stock market expectations.

The US CPI release due at 1:30pm London time is expected to show a headline inflation rate of 8.1%, which would be a fall from last month’s rate of 8.5%. This may be taken as “inflation has peaked” good news by markets if the forecast is accurate, which would likely boost stocks and cryptos. However, there are concerns the decline from the peak could be slow and problematic.The cryptocurrency market reached a crucial point yesterday, with Bitcoin threatening to make a breakdown below key support at $28,800, and other digital currencies were also looking weak. There were signs the entire crypto market is in danger of sharp falls in value and general destabilization. However, Bitcoin held the $30k area and advanced a little, so this pivotal area may produce a major directional price movement either long or short – the jury is still out.Daily new coronavirus cases globally fell last week for the seventh consecutive week.It is estimated that 65.5% of the world’s population has received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccination, while approximately 6.6% of the global population is confirmed to have contracted the virus at some time, although the true number is highly likely to be much larger.Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 518.4 million with an average case fatality rate of 1.21%.The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be significantly increasing only in Dominica, South Africa, and Taiwan.The Chinese state is doubling down on its “zero covid” strategy, with increased lockdown restrictions in including the closure of all schools indefinitely in Beijing and a full subway closure in Shanghai. The measures are seen as having hurt the Yuan and the Chinese stock market.